After a long week of sectionals, Hoosier basketball is still going strong with regionals coming up this weekend. Just like with the sectionals I will be giving my prediction and opinion on every regional pairing. My sectional predictions were more accurate than John Harrell with myself correctly picking 38/64 sectional winners and him picking just 36/64 winners correctly. Let’s see if I can beat him again with my regional predictions.
Class 4A
Bracket:
Regional 1: Michigan City
Teams: Culver Academy, Merrillville, Northridge, Valparaiso
My Pick: Culver Academy
The path for the Eagles to make it to semi-state has gotten a lot easier. This was a regional expected to have two additional top ten teams in Munster and Chesterton, but a couple of impressive upsets leaves Culver as the lone high ranked team in the regional. No one seems to be able to slow these Eagles down and I don’t imagine that will change here in regionals. Star player and IU men’s basketball commit Trey Galloway has his team on a 15 game win streak heading into regionals.
Sleeper Pick: Valparaiso
Coming off of a big win against Chesterton, Valparaiso has some momentum to build on heading into the regionals. Getting to play a 12-12 Merrillville team in the first round will give them a much better chance to advance past the regional. All they would have to do to make it out of regionals and play one really good game against Culver Academy to be able to pull off the upset.
John Harrell’s Pick: Culver Academy 54.13% chance
Regional 2: Logansport
Teams: Carmel, Fort Wayne Snider, Marion, New Haven
My Pick: Carmel
The Greyhounds are in a good position to make it to semi state after coming out of their sectional by beating Hamilton Southeastern, and Lafayette Jeff’s early departure further clears the way for Carmel. They are definitely the best team in this sectional and the defending state champions are looking to make it back to semi-state again this year.
Sleeper Pick: Fort Wayne Snider
Snider has an easier first round match against Marion, which gives them a slightly better chance than they would normally have because of the easier path. They are capable of beating a team like Carmel and could definitely advance if they have a good game.
John Harrell’s Pick: Carmel 61.42% chance
Regional 3: Southport
Teams: Brownsburg, Lawrence North, New Palestine, Pike
My Pick: Brownsburg
Brownsburg has had a really solid season and I think they will go on a run here and make it out of this regional. Brownsburg did lose earlier in the season to Lawrence North by 14, but LN has been struggling recently being very fortunate to make it out of their sectional. The Bulldogs have been playing some of their better basketball recently and have some momentum going into the regional.
Sleeper Pick: Pike
Pike is an interesting team, and have some very good wins on the season beating Fishers and Hamilton Southeastern. They also only lost to Lawrence Central by two points earlier in the season. While Lawrence North and Brownsburg both beat them by a substantial margin, they could play really well and win against both those teams.
John Harrell’s Pick: Lawrence North 72.77% chance
Regional 4: Seymour
Teams: Bloomington South, Evansville Reitz, Floyd Central, Greenwood
My Pick: Bloomington South
The Panthers are still out for perfection being 26-0 on the season. This group of Panthers already broke the record for wins in a season for Bloomington South and they don’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon. They get to play a Floyd Central team in the first round who took them to overtime on the road in the first round, and then get the winner of Reitz and Greenwood. None of the teams in this regional are as good as Columbus North who South disposed of in Sectionals.
Sleeper Pick: Floyd Central
If Floyd manages to get past South in the first round, I wouldn’t be surprised if they win the whole thing because they have a very good team and are used to Seymour’s gym because they just wrapped up a sectional championship in Seymour.
John Harrell’s Pick: Bloomington South 69.11% chance
Class 3A
Regional 5: South Bend Washington
Teams: Hammond, Hanover Central, Mishawaka Marian, Western
My Pick: Mishawaka Marian
I feel like this regional is pretty close between Hammond and Mishawaka Marian, but I feel like Mishawaka Marian will come out of this one because they have played a harder schedule and won more games on the year than Hammond. They have already proven they are battle ready this tournament with their hard fought victory against South Bend St. Joseph in sectionals.
Sleeper Pick: Hanover Central
This Hanover Central team has only lost two games all season. While their strength of schedule might not be great, they do have a winning mentality in place this season and could possibly go on a run here in the tournament.
John Harrell’s Pick: Mishawaka Marian 48.29% chance
Regional 6: New Castle
Teams: Delta, Leo, NorthWood, Norwell
My Pick: Delta
Delta has something to prove this year after stumbling in last year’s state tournament as the top ranked team in Class 3A. This year they entered the tournament ranked lower but still in the top ten. I think this extra motivation will push them over the edge in this one and help them beat a really tough Norwell team.
Sleeper Pick: NorthWood
NorthWood is a very good basketball team and I wouldn’t sleep on them in their first round match against Norwell. I think they play Norwell tight and could possibly end up with a win.
John Harrell’s Pick: Norwell 43.06% chance
Regional 7: Greencastle
Teams: Beech Grove, Brebeuf-Jesuit, Brownstown Central, Danville
My Pick: Brebeuf-Jesuit
I’ve been on the Brebeuf hype train all year and I still think they are a really good basketball program. They already proved me right in sectionals, upsetting the favorite to win, Lebanon. I think they have another upset in them and will beat Danville in the championship game. A first round game against an 11-15 Brownstown Central team practically guarantees their spot in the regional championship game.
Sleeper Pick: Beech Grove
Beech Grove was the underdog in their sectional going up against Indian Creek and they came out victorious. I think they are very capable of not only beating Danville in the first round, but also winning the regional championship.
John Harrell’s Pick: Danville 52.95% chance
Regional 8: Washington
Teams: Greensburg, Heritage Hills, Silver Creek, Washington
My Pick: Silver Creek
This regional is arguably the most stacked regional in any class of basketball having Class 3As first, second, and third ranked teams all in this regional. That being said I still feel like top ranked Silver Creek will win this sectional because I think they have the best team in Class 3A lead by star forward Trey Kaufman.
Sleeper Pick: Washington
It’s tough to find a sleeper when all of the teams have a decent shot of winning, and I feel like the most unlikely champion in this regional is Washington, but even the Hatchets have a decent shot of making it out of regionals as they are hosting it in the famous Hatchet House.
John Harrell’s Pick: Heritage Hills 43.69% chance
Class 2A
Regional 9: North Judson
Teams: Bowman Academy, Churubusco, Fort Wayne Blackhawk, LaVille
My Pick: Fort Wayne Blackhawk
Blackhawk should be able to roll through this regional fairly easily and I don’t really see any of these other teams beating them. This is largely due to the fact that I don’t think anyone will be able to stop Caleb Furst from having his way in any of these games.
Sleeper Pick: Bowman Academy
If any team in this regional could take down Blackhawk, it would be Bowman Academy. They are only 15-7 but they have proven that they can beat good teams like Hammond and Gary West Side. They are capable of competing at a high level and could manage to pull off the upset against Blackhawk Christian.
John Harrell’s Pick: Fort Wayne Blackhawk 58.28% chance
Regional 10: Lapel
Teams: Blackford, Rochester, Rossville, Wapahani
My Pick: Blackford
Blackford handled Triton in their sectional finals match and beat them by 17. Many would consider this an upset and the momentum that they are taking into regional seems to be setting them up for success moving forward. The way the Bruins won their sectional proved that this team is legit and can make it to the semi state.
Sleeper Pick: Wapahani
Wapahani has also had an impressive season sitting at 20-5 for their current record. They haven’t played the same quality of wins as Blackford so they are still the underdogs compared to the Bruins.
John Harrell’s Pick: Blackford 52.39% chance
Regional 11: Greenfield-Central
Teams: Covenant Christian, Parke Heritage, Shenandoah, South Decatur
My Pick: Shenandoah
I’ve been high on this Shenandoah team all season so I will continue to ride them here in regionals as I feel that they outclass their opponents. None of these teams are bad so everyone is going to have their work cut out for them in this regional. Ultimately, I see Shenandoah coming out on top.
Sleeper Pick: Parke Heritage
Parke Heritage is coming off of their first sectional win in Class 2A and could have a slight chance of making it out of this regional. They play Shenandoah in their opening round game and if they can pull off the upset they might be able to win a second game as well. They have only lost three games all season so they are pretty solid.
John Harrell’s pick: Shenandoah 47.99%
Regional 12: Southridge
Teams: Crawford County, Linton-Stockton, Providence, South Spencer
My Pick: Linton-Stockton
No surprise here that I picked my personal top ranked team in my own rankings. I think Linton is really poised to make a deep run in this year’s state tournament so they should be able to handle the competition they face in regionals.
Sleeper Pick: South Spencer
After being a sleeper to win their sectional they are once again a sleeper to win their regional. They got lucky in their sectional when Evansville Mater Dei got knocked out early in the tournament, but this time they probably won’t get so lucky and will have to beat a very good Linton team to win the regional and advance.
John Harrell’s Pick: Linton-Stockton 43.95% chance
Class 1A
Regional 13: Triton
Teams: Argos, Caston, Elkhart Christian, Gary 21st Century
My Pick: Gary 21st Century
This regional is the absolute definition of lopsided. Gary 21st Century already out classes everyone in their class and would be a formidable opponent in 3A or 4A with wins over teams like Cathedral and only losing to Crispus Attucks by four, but this really becomes one sided when their first round opponent, Elkhart Christian, has a losing record at 11-13 and the next best team in the regional is Argos at 16-9. This pick is definitely the one I am most confident in.
Sleeper Pick: None
I really don’t see any way anybody else wins this sectional. A slight argument could be made for Argos as a sleeper but that still seems too far fetched as 21st cleaned up the number three team in Class 1A by 16 points last weekend.
John Harrell’s Pick: Gary 21st Century 87.64% chance
Regional 14: Frankfort
Teams: Blue River, Covington, Cowan, Southwood
My Pick: Covington
Covington pulled it off for the second time this year when they faced Lafayette Central Catholic, and should continue their hot streak into regionals. I’ve thought highly of this team all year and I think they will make me proud once more in regionals.
Sleeper Pick: Blue River Valley
Blue River Valley is the only other team that I think has a chance at winning this regional but the chances are still low for them. The Vikings are 19-6 on the season and have been pretty successful on the year.
John Harrell’s Pick: Blue River Valley 66.52% chance
Regional 15: Martinsville
Teams: Bloomfield, Greenwood Christian, Indianapolis International, Oldenburg Academy
My Pick: Greenwood Christian
Greenwood Christian still only has one loss on the season which is very impressive. They are definitely the best team in this sectional and should make it out of this regional. They have yet to falter against a Class 1A team this season.
Sleeper Pick: Bloomfield
Even without regional all star Turner Royal, this Bloomfield team still has a decent shot at making it out of regionals if they get lucky and pull off some upsets.
John Harrell’s Pick: Greenwood Christian 66.59% chance
Regional 16: Loogootee
Teams: Barr-Reeve, Christian Academy, Crothersville, Northeast Dubois
My Pick: Barr-Reeve
Barr-Reeve made it out of one of the more competitive sectionals beating both North Daviess and Loogootee. They are a very good team and should have an easier time making it out of regionals than they did sectionals.
Sleeper Pick: Christian Academy
Christian Academy has a relatively good record at 18-7 and could be able to beat Barr-Reeve here at Loogootee. If any team could upset Barr-Reeve in this sectional it would be Christian Academy.
John Harrell’s Pick: Barr-Reeve 72.38% chance
Hopefully the state tournament doesn’t get cancelled due to coronavirus and I will be able to give my semi-state predictions for next week.
